Leading Economic Activity Index

The leading index is intended to forecast future economic activity. More specifically it predicts the six-month growth rate of the state's coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the model includes other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill.

 

 

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